The seat test · guide v4.6.0 · SECTION 1-B
Gate v5.2
A system bets real money only when it clears all six checks below. Every number is measured at the opening price.
Table 1 = Proof AND Seasons AND CLV AND Blind AND ROI band AND Integrity
The six checks
| Check | Pass condition | What it means |
|---|---|---|
| Proof | Profit p ≤ 0.05 and ROI lower bound (95%) ≥ 0%, over ≥ 100 sealed bets — or the same two tests on the blind bets alone (never pooled). | The win is too big to be luck. |
| Seasons | ROI > 0 in at least 2/3 of seasons with ≥ 10 bets, and ≥ 3 such seasons. Complete blind seasons and unseen past seasons count; losing ones count as losses. | It wins most years, not one lucky year. |
| CLV | Mean closing line value > 0 at p < 0.05 over ≥ 100 bets with both prices. Kalshi or Polymarket first (either passes), else the sportsbook close. | The market moves toward our side after we bet. |
| Blind | ROI > 0 at the open on bets this rule was never chosen on: ≥ 150 bets, or ≥ 2 full blind seasons of ≥ 75. Those blind bets must also beat the close by more than the whole market did on the same side: p < 0.005 over ≥ 75 bets. | It keeps winning on games it never saw, and beats the close on its own merit. |
| ROI band | Sealed ROI at the opening price between 5.0% and 35.0%. | Enough margin to matter, not a spike. |
| Integrity | Two real price origins (no estimates, no assumed −110), each passing the copy test; two engines agree (same N, ROI within 0.01 pts); sealed picks, no look-ahead; rules sharing ≥ 90% of picks graded as one. | The numbers are real and reproduce. |
Prices
Opening price. A rule decides, is backtested, graded and bet at the opening price. A closing-price backtest is not a v5.2 backtest.
Kalshi / Polymarket rules that fire on a venue price use that stamped fire-time price instead of the open, for every check; their CLV is venue close mid ÷ fire-time mid − 1.
Table 2 and verified
Table 2 = paper, no money. Passes Proof, Seasons, CLV, ROI band and Integrity while the blind record is still filling (none yet, or ROI > 0) — or misses exactly one of those four with a blind record that is not losing.
Verified means recorded. A system counts only when its committed files record every check — no “?”, no “sources disagree”, no UNREADABLE on its registry row. Anything else is UNVERIFIED: listed, never counted, never posted.