Daily registry · Oct 7, 1:43 PM ET

v5.2 seat registry

Snapshot for 2026-10-07, built 2026-10-07 17:43 UTC on Nicholass-iMac.local. Daily report on every Table 1 and Table 2 rule by sport. Every number is read from the sport's own file on origin/main; a dash means the sport does not record it.

12 Table 1 seats
11 live
0 waiting
1 leaving
29 paper

SEAT UNVERIFIED: Low Corner Model Draw (soccer); Shallow Box Priced Draw (soccer) · Table 1: MMA 2 live · CFB 1 live · NHL 1 live · NBA 7 live · MLB 1 live · paper 29 · changes: soccer SEAT UNVERIFIED Low Corner Model Draw; soccer SEAT UNVERIFIED Shallow Box Priced Draw; soccer paper rule now unverified Lucky Host Toothless Draw; +48 more

✓ passes ✗ misses … blind still accruing, not losing ? the sport does not record it ⚠ the sport's verdict and its values disagree One mark per v5.2 criterion (guide SECTION 1): proof, seasons, CLV, blind holdout, ROI band, integrity. A miss shows the grader's reason under the row.

Table 1 — seats 12

Real money. Every row passed gate v5.2; Waiting rows are approved but not betting yet. Blind needs 150 bets, or 2 full seasons ≥ 75.

Sport	System	Status	Sealed N	ROI at open	p	CI lower	Seasons	CLV (n · mean · p)	Blind bets · ROI	Integrity
MMA	Statistical Main Card Experienced	Live	597	7.2%	0.023	1.3%	5/7	1017 · 1.77% · <0.001	420/150 · 4.6% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 383-214-0 (+43.1u) (an earlier book, mmalogic/docs/reports/v51_open_price_bets.json, holds 588 bets) · Blind 264-156-0 (+19.3u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity
MMA	Host Country Fighterwas home_abroad	Live	150	12.2%	0.053	0.2%	3/4	849 · 1.24% · <0.001	699/150 · 9.6% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 100-50-0 (+18.3u) · Blind 428-271-0 (+67.2u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity
College football	Unranked Clinched Versus Eliminatedwas CFB-REMINE-02	Live	293	17.5%	<0.001	8.6%	14/18	814 · 1.46% · <0.001	521/150 · 0.7% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 177-111-5 (+51.1u) · Blind 268-239-14 (+3.4u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Table 1 under protocol v6: blind 521 bets +0.66% on assumed-price windows (2007-13 +1.58%, 2017-22 -0.51%); one of several rules from a batch that beat luck at P 0.04 — real-price results are tracked from its first fire.
NHL	Fade Overtime Hangover	Live	170	14.1%	0.032	1.2%	3/3	886 · 1.86% · <0.001	716/150 · 0.6% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 102-68-0 (+23.9u) · Blind 400-316-0 (+4.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Table 1 on a single-archive blind window (NHL 2008-19, guide v3.8.0, 0.5% penalty); the increment over plain back-to-back opponents is not significant (random-subset p .09 sealed / .23 blind); Kalshi 2025-26 at ask+fee +3.76% on 94 — real-price results are tracked from now.
NBA	Efficient Cold Offense Underwas t02109	Live	215	11.3%	0.040	0.9%	2/3	846 · 2.96% · <0.001	631/150 · 3.5% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 125-88-2 (+24.3u) · Blind 333-292-6 (+22.2u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Table 1 on a proxy-priced blind window (2012-18, guide v3.7.0); the proxy averages -106 vs -110 at real opens — at flat -110 the blind ROI is still +1.70%; zero-skill false-pass rate 28-47%, 3 of 6 blind seasons negative — real-price results are tracked from 10-20. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-03 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Blowout Winner Rested Starterswas b0100	Live	105	19.6%	0.018	4.8%	3/3	415 · 2.19% · <0.001	310/150 · 6.5% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 66-39-0 (+20.5u) · Blind 169-134-7 (+20.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Table 1 from the protocol v6 re-test (guide v4.3.0; pre-reg docs/preregistration/nba-v6-retest.md): blind-to-this-rule 2008-19 proxy spread window, graded at the worse of the proxy and a real open: blind ROI +6.46% on 310 bets (at the proxy alone +8.06%), 6 of 11 blind seasons positive; blind CLV +1.87% (p 0.0001, n 310). Blind seasons, bets / ROI: 2008-09 13 / -11.7%, 2009-10 18 / +6.2%, 2010-11 16 / +43.1%, 2011-12 24 / +12.0%, 2012-13 33 / +19.0%, 2013-14 25 / -31.2%, 2014-15 40 / +19.4%, 2015-16 35 / -4.2%, 2016-17 25 / -0.5%, 2017-18 34 / +23.8%, 2018-19 47 / -4.4%. Sealed 2023-26: 105 bets +19.57% (p 0.0175). pipeline null of this re-test (200 zero-skill outcome draws, 30 rules): mean 4.79 rules seated per draw, P(>=1) .95; this rule's zero-skill false-pass rate 0.180; random same-size subset p 0.019. Disclosed: the SBRO 2019-23 flat -110 screen (no real price) read -16.1% on 156 bets. Forecast forward ROI at no more than half the blind ROI. Real-price results are tracked from 10-20. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-07 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Tight Rotation Small Spreadwas s2838	Live	107	18.5%	0.021	3.8%	3/3	593 · 2.50% · <0.001	486/150 · 1.5% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 65-40-2 (+19.8u) · Blind 252-222-12 (+7.3u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Table 1 on a proxy-priced blind window (2008-19, guide v3.7.0), graded at the worse of the proxy and a real open (-109.3); blind ROI +1.51% on 486 bets (at the proxy alone +2.92%); zero-skill replays clear this blind bar 17-35% of the time, 7 of 11 blind seasons positive — real-price results are tracked from 10-20. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-04 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Stable Bench Star Minuteswas s5200	Live	161	13.6%	0.034	1.6%	2/3	596 · 2.44% · <0.001	435/150 · 0.2% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 95-64-2 (+21.9u) · Blind 224-203-8 (+0.7u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Table 1 on a proxy-priced blind window (2008-19, guide v3.7.0), graded at the worse of the proxy and a real open (-109.3); blind ROI +0.16% on 435 bets (at the proxy alone +1.51%); zero-skill replays clear this blind bar 17-35% of the time, 4 of 11 blind seasons positive — real-price results are tracked from 10-20. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-04 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Slow Leaky Defense Underwas t01299	Live	146	13.7%	0.043	0.8%	3/3	611 · 2.25% · <0.001	465/150 · 0.3% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 86-59-1 (+20.0u) · Blind 242-219-4 (+1.3u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Table 1 from the protocol v6 re-test (guide v4.3.0; pre-reg docs/preregistration/nba-v6-retest.md): blind-to-this-rule 2012-18 proxy totals window, graded at the worse of the proxy and a real open: blind ROI +0.27% on 465 bets (at the proxy alone +2.13%), 4 of 6 blind seasons positive; blind CLV +1.86% (p 0.0000, n 465). Blind seasons, bets / ROI: 2012-13 65 / -4.3%, 2013-14 104 / -18.2%, 2014-15 99 / +3.2%, 2015-16 59 / +19.8%, 2016-17 56 / +4.0%, 2017-18 82 / +7.1%. Sealed 2023-26: 146 bets +13.69% (p 0.0426). pipeline null of this re-test (200 zero-skill outcome draws, 30 rules): mean 4.79 rules seated per draw, P(>=1) .95; this rule's zero-skill false-pass rate 0.115; random same-size subset p 0.165. Second-book caveat: re-priced at the Action Network b30 open the sealed bets give +11.72%, p 0.0678 (proof fails at that book; the graded origin is NBA's standard ESPN-provider open). Forecast forward ROI at no more than half the blind ROI. Real-price results are tracked from 10-20. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-07 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Hot Form Bricks Overwas t05025	Live	122	14.6%	0.042	1.0%	2/3	398 · 4.70% · <0.001	276/150 · 7.8% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 74-47-1 (+17.8u) · Blind 152-117-7 (+21.4u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Table 1 from the protocol v6 re-test (guide v4.3.0; pre-reg docs/preregistration/nba-v6-retest.md): blind-to-this-rule 2012-18 proxy totals window, graded at the worse of the proxy and a real open: blind ROI +7.76% on 276 bets (at the proxy alone +9.54%), 4 of 6 blind seasons positive; blind CLV +3.77% (p 0.0000, n 276). Blind seasons, bets / ROI: 2012-13 46 / -8.5%, 2013-14 72 / +6.3%, 2014-15 34 / +4.1%, 2015-16 39 / +17.5%, 2016-17 41 / -6.6%, 2017-18 44 / +34.7%. Sealed 2023-26: 122 bets +14.62% (p 0.0419). pipeline null of this re-test (200 zero-skill outcome draws, 30 rules): mean 4.79 rules seated per draw, P(>=1) .95; this rule's zero-skill false-pass rate 0.220; random same-size subset p 0.009. Second-book caveat: re-priced at the Action Network b30 open the sealed bets give +14.19%, p 0.0500 (proof fails at that book; the graded origin is NBA's standard ESPN-provider open). Forecast forward ROI at no more than half the blind ROI. Real-price results are tracked from 10-20. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-07 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Low Total Hot Overwas t08719	Live	142	13.7%	0.041	0.9%	2/3	451 · 3.00% · <0.001	309/150 · 3.9% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
✓ 6/6 checks Sealed 86-56-0 (+19.4u) · Blind 164-137-8 (+12.1u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Table 1 from the protocol v6 re-test (guide v4.3.0; pre-reg docs/preregistration/nba-v6-retest.md): blind-to-this-rule 2012-18 proxy totals window, graded at the worse of the proxy and a real open: blind ROI +3.91% on 309 bets (at the proxy alone +5.55%), 3 of 6 blind seasons positive; blind CLV +2.07% (p 0.0002, n 309). Blind seasons, bets / ROI: 2012-13 45 / -0.1%, 2013-14 62 / -7.5%, 2014-15 43 / +15.6%, 2015-16 33 / +18.8%, 2016-17 75 / +8.1%, 2017-18 51 / -4.3%. Sealed 2023-26: 142 bets +13.66% (p 0.0414). pipeline null of this re-test (200 zero-skill outcome draws, 30 rules): mean 4.79 rules seated per draw, P(>=1) .95; this rule's zero-skill false-pass rate 0.250; random same-size subset p 0.041. Second-book caveat: re-priced at the Action Network b30 open the sealed bets give +12.76%, p 0.0551 (proof fails at that book; the graded origin is NBA's standard ESPN-provider open). Forecast forward ROI at no more than half the blind ROI. Real-price results are tracked from 10-20. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-07 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
MLB	Back Home Win Streak	Leaving Blind fails · tickets refused until the sport's next report	137	15.3%	0.025	2.2%	5/6	302 · 1.11% · <0.001	165/150 · 5.8% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 86-51-0 (+20.9u) · Blind 98-67-0 (+9.6u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket +0.49% (p 0.0767) not > 0 at p < 0.005 (guide v4.4.0) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. Back Home Win Streak sits in Table 1 on guide v3.11.0 (owner 2026-10-04). Its proof is the sealed 2018-25 record (137 bets, +15.3%, p 0.025) and book CLV +1.1% (p 0.00005, 302 bets). The blind record is 165 bets at +5.8%: 142 from MLB 2010-15, 23 from 2026. 2010-15 has one price archive (SBRO) and no second source, so the owner approved it with a penalty: a game whose opening price sits more than 15 points from its close is dropped, every payout is cut 0.5%, and live decisions always need two real prices. Read the blind step with care: a random rule passes it about half the time (95 of 200 trials at fair odds; a shuffle of results passes it 198 of 200), so the seat rests on the sealed proof and CLV, not on the blind ROI. Betting every home team at the 2010-15 open lost 3.5%, and random 144-bet home subsets matched this rule's 2010-15 result 10.5% of the time. 2016 (32 bets, +13.0%) is left out: the plan counted it, the seat does not, a cautious change made after the look (with it: 197 blind bets at +7.0%). Engines A and B agree on the sealed frame (137 bets) and on 2010-15 from 2010-05-01 (142 bets); the whole window did not (144 vs 147, three April-2010 bets where 2009 history is partial). Result note: diamondpredictions audit_reports/v51_single_archive_2010_15_result.md.

Table 2 — paper 29

No money. Rules filling their blind record, or missing exactly one check with a blind record that is not losing. Blind needs 150 bets, or 2 full seasons ≥ 75.

Sport	System	Sealed N	ROI at open	p	CI lower	Seasons	CLV (n · mean · p)	Blind bets · ROI	Integrity	Forward stamps (iMac)
Soccer	Shallow Gap Lucky Draw	265	29.0%	0.012	5.8%	5/5	434 · 0.93% · 0.006	169/150 · 3.9% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	passed (one flag)	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 74-191-0 (+76.9u) · Blind 39-130-0 (+6.6u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket does not beat the close (guide v4.4.0)
Soccer	Close Ratings Host Draw	184	31.9%	0.005	9.1%	3/3	439 · 1.07% · <0.001	255/150 · 12.7% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	passed (one flag)	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 65-119-0 (+58.6u) · Blind 80-175-0 (+32.3u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket +0.01% (p 0.4782) not > 0 at p < 0.005 (guide v4.4.0) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict.
Soccer	Low Corner Pair Draw	204	22.6%	0.022	2.8%	3/3	473 · 1.26% · <0.001	269/150 · 10.4% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	passed (one flag)	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 71-133-0 (+46.1u) · Blind 84-185-0 (+28.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket +0.57% (p 0.0094) not > 0 at p < 0.005 (guide v4.4.0) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict.
Soccer	Rated Host Low Corners	214	20.5%	0.035	1.3%	2/3	511 · 1.85% · <0.001	297/150 · 15.1% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	passed (one flag)	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 72-142-0 (+43.9u) · Blind 89-208-0 (+44.8u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket +0.63% (p 0.0133) not > 0 at p < 0.005 (guide v4.4.0) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict.
MMA	Eight Years Youngerwas young8	261	6.9%	0.079	-1.0%	5/6	349 · 4.69% · <0.001	88/150 · 5.6% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	5 stamped rows, file 2026-10-07 17:09 UTC mmalogic/data/forward/ufc_v51/table2/young8.jsonl
⚠ 4/6 checks Record (sealed and blind): not recorded (mmalogic/docs/reports/v51_look_young8_2026-10-06.json — no graded rows for this listing) ✗ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Proof misses: n=261 (need 100), p=0.0794, CI lower=-1.0230 Blind accruing: blind 88/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75), ROI +5.6% forward: 3 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-04
NFL	Away Rebuilder Passing Edge	151	15.0%	0.026	2.6%	8/10	151 · 3.62% · <0.001	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-05) Football/data/forward/nfl_de_open_v1/v51_paper/away-rebuilder-passing-edge/stamps.jsonl — football.forward-open first run Mon 2026-10-05 12:00 CT (tasks/todo.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 87-58-6 (+22.6u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-01 (first run pending 2026-10-05)
NFL	Pass Funnel Defense Underwas home_dproe_hi UNDER	687	8.5%	0.010	2.6%	9/12	1142 · 1.80% · <0.001	455/150 · 3.7% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-05) Football/data/forward/nfl_de_open_v1/v51_paper/home_dproe_hi-under/stamps.jsonl — football.forward-open first run Mon 2026-10-05 12:00 CT (tasks/todo.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 382-293-12 (+58.2u) · Blind 236-209-10 (+16.7u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket fail (book n=455, mean=+0.576%, p=0.1214, need < 0.005) — gate v5.2 (guide v4.4.0), re-graded 2026-10-07 (scripts/nfl_v52_dproe_blanket.py) forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-04 (first run pending 2026-10-05)
NFL	Fade Low Profile Homewas home_lowbrand FADE	471	8.1%	0.031	1.0%	8/12	899 · 0.54% · 0.049	428/150 · 6.9% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-05) Football/data/forward/nfl_de_open_v1/v51_paper/home_lowbrand-fade/stamps.jsonl — football.forward-open first run Mon 2026-10-05 12:00 CT (tasks/todo.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 255-197-19 (+38.1u) · Blind 224-188-16 (+29.6u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: blind CLV fail (book n=428, need 75, mean=+0.189%, p=0.344) — guide v4.3.0, re-graded 2026-10-06 with shared_libs v51_gate 3e1f542 forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-04 (first run pending 2026-10-05)
NFL	Normal Rest Repeat Underwas Totals UNDER: no_extra_rest + home_last_under	141	14.8%	0.034	1.5%	3/3	1407 · 2.23% · <0.001	1266/150 · 0.8% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	31 stamped rows, file 2026-10-05 17:49 UTC Football/data/forward/nfl_totals_v1/stamps.jsonl
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 81-57-3 (+20.9u) · Blind 644-591-31 (+10.6u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket fail (book n=1266, mean=+0.466%, p=0.0535, need < 0.005) — gate v5.2 (guide v4.4.0), re-graded 2026-10-07 forward: 5 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-03
NFL	Home Pass Rush Edgewas net_home BET	121	12.3%	0.076	-1.6%	3/3	457 · 1.28% · 0.004	336/150 · 1.8% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-12) Football/data/forward/nfl_pressure_v1/net_home/stamps.jsonl — football.forward-open stamps the pressure rules from Mon 2026-10-12 12:00 CT (FWD-009, Football tasks/todo.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 71-49-1 (+14.9u) · Blind 175-153-8 (+6.2u) ✗ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Proof misses: p 0.0760 > 0.05; CI lower -1.60% < 0 forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-07 (first run pending 2026-10-12)
NFL	Home Clean Pocketwas home_opr_lo BET	129	7.4%	0.188	-6.2%	2/3	458 · 1.41% · 0.002	329/150 · 0.6% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-12) Football/data/forward/nfl_pressure_v1/home_opr_lo/stamps.jsonl — football.forward-open stamps the pressure rules from Mon 2026-10-12 12:00 CT (FWD-009, Football tasks/todo.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 71-55-3 (+9.5u) · Blind 169-152-8 (+1.9u) ✗ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✓ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Proof misses: p 0.1878 > 0.05; CI lower -6.20% < 0 forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-07 (first run pending 2026-10-12)
College football	Clinched Road Teamwas CFB-REMINE-03	240	15.1%	0.007	5.2%	8/10	431 · 1.94% · <0.001	191/150 · 0.9% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	0 stamped rows, file 2026-10-06 23:34 UTC cfb-algorithm/data/v51_paper_ledger.db:open_stamps
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 142-94-4 (+36.2u) · Blind 98-87-6 (+1.6u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket +1.77% (p 0.0082) not > 0 at p < 0.005 (guide v4.4.0) forward: 0 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-04
College football	Contender Versus New Coachwas CFB-REMINE-04	166	18.2%	0.007	6.4%	11/19	496 · 0.95% · 0.026	330/150 · 7.2% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	0 stamped rows, file 2026-10-06 23:34 UTC cfb-algorithm/data/v51_paper_ledger.db:open_stamps
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 101-62-3 (+30.1u) · Blind 182-141-7 (+23.6u) ✓ Proof ✗ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Seasons misses: 11/19 profitable (need >= 2/3 of >= 3) — guide v4.6.0 counts its blind 2007-13 + 2017-22 seasons; Table 2 by the one-miss route (blind ROI > 0) Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket does not beat the close (guide v4.4.0) forward: 0 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-06
College football	Unranked Contender Versus Eliminatedwas CFB-REMINE-05	143	18.2%	0.011	5.5%	10/17	393 · 1.84% · <0.001	250/150 · 3.0% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	0 stamped rows, file 2026-10-06 23:34 UTC cfb-algorithm/data/v51_paper_ledger.db:open_stamps
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 88-54-1 (+26.0u) · Blind 131-111-8 (+7.5u) ✓ Proof ✗ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Seasons misses: 10/17 profitable (need >= 2/3 of >= 3) — guide v4.6.0 counts its blind 2007-13 + 2017-22 seasons; Table 2 by the one-miss route (blind ROI > 0) Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket +1.51% (p 0.0130) not > 0 at p < 0.005 (guide v4.4.0) forward: 0 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-06
NHL	Rested Short Favoritewas Rested Small Fav vs B2B	225	5.9%	0.157	-3.5%	2/3	225 · 3.96% · <0.001	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	13 stamped rows, file 2026-10-07 09:05 UTC icebreaker-ai/data/forward/frozen_rule_fires_2026-27.jsonl (all four frozen rules write one file)
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 136-89-0 (+13.2u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✗ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Proof misses: n=225 (need 100), p=0.1568, CI lower=-3.5465 Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) forward: 0 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02
NHL	Rested Process Favoritewas Rested Process Fav vs B2B	107	5.5%	0.257	-8.0%	2/3	107 · 4.34% · <0.001	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	13 stamped rows, file 2026-10-07 09:05 UTC icebreaker-ai/data/forward/frozen_rule_fires_2026-27.jsonl (all four frozen rules write one file)
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 65-42-0 (+5.9u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✗ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Proof misses: n=107 (need 100), p=0.2566, CI lower=-8.0381 Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) same family as Rested Small Fav vs B2B: every one of its sealed picks is also that rule's, so the family is graded once and counted once forward: 0 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02
NBA	Consensus Or Defense Edgewas nba-v51-agree-defense-open	372	9.6%	0.025	1.6%	3/3	209 · 0.39% · 0.234	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-20) courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_agree_defense_open_v1/stamps.jsonl — NBA stampers start with the 2026-27 season, opening 2026-10-20 (docs/v51-table2-candidates.md)
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 214-154-4 (+35.6u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✗ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity CLV misses: polymarket n=209 (need 100), mean=0.0038, p=0.2344 Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) forward: — stamped / 150 · freeze date not recorded (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Fade Third In Fourwas r6330	333	10.4%	0.023	1.9%	2/3	333 · 4.60% · <0.001	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-20) courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_fresh_open_v1/stamps.jsonl — NBA stampers start with the 2026-27 season, opening 2026-10-20 (docs/v51-table2-candidates.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 193-140-0 (+34.7u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Proof, Seasons, CLV, Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Fresh Favorite Tired Opponentwas r0227	310	11.1%	0.019	2.3%	2/3	310 · 6.49% · <0.001	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-20) courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_fresh_open_v1/stamps.jsonl — NBA stampers start with the 2026-27 season, opening 2026-10-20 (docs/v51-table2-candidates.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 180-129-1 (+34.5u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Proof, Seasons, CLV, Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Lighter Schedule Tired Opponentwas r6240	267	10.1%	0.042	0.5%	2/3	267 · 5.27% · <0.001	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-20) courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_fresh_open_v1/stamps.jsonl — NBA stampers start with the 2026-27 season, opening 2026-10-20 (docs/v51-table2-candidates.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 154-113-0 (+26.8u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Proof, Seasons, CLV, Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Rested Offensive Rebounderswas r4425	264	12.0%	0.020	2.5%	3/3	264 · 4.73% · <0.001	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-20) courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_fresh_open_v1/stamps.jsonl — NBA stampers start with the 2026-27 season, opening 2026-10-20 (docs/v51-table2-candidates.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 155-108-1 (+31.7u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Proof, Seasons, CLV, Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Rested Light Week Favoritewas r6107	259	11.9%	0.022	2.2%	2/3	259 · 4.76% · <0.001	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-20) courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_fresh_open_v1/stamps.jsonl — NBA stampers start with the 2026-27 season, opening 2026-10-20 (docs/v51-table2-candidates.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 151-108-0 (+30.9u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Proof, Seasons, CLV, Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Assist Heavy Projection Underwas t11073	127	14.0%	0.046	0.6%	2/3	527 · 0.83% · 0.055	400/150 · 4.6% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-20) courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_totals_open_v1/stamps.jsonl — NBA stampers start with the 2026-27 season, opening 2026-10-20 (docs/v51-table2-candidates.md)
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 77-50-0 (+17.8u) · Blind 213-183-4 (+18.5u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✗ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity CLV misses: book n=527 (need 100), mean=0.0083, p=0.0545 Blind misses: 400 blind bets (need 150, or 2 full blind seasons with >= 75; have 0 full), ROI=4.6213; blind CLV fail (book n=400, need 75, mean=-0.0026, p=0.6887) one blind look taken on the 2012-18 proxy window (guide v3.7.0): 400 bets, ROI +4.62%; missed clv, holdout; stays paper forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-03 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Stable Bench Rested Starwas m5139	149	16.2%	0.020	1.8%	2/3	445 · 0.96% · 0.022	296/150 · 0.9% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-20) courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_minutes_ml_open_v1/stamps.jsonl — NBA stampers start with the 2026-27 season, opening 2026-10-20 (docs/v51-table2-candidates.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 109-40-0 (+24.1u) · Blind 180-116-0 (+2.5u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: 296 blind bets (need 150, or 2 full blind seasons with >= 75; have 0 full), ROI=0.8565; blind CLV fail (book n=296, need 75, mean=0.0051, p=0.1277) blind look taken on the 2012-18 erichqiu-open moneyline window: 296 bets, ROI +0.86%; missed holdout (blind CLV +0.52%, p 0.128, guide v4.3.0); stays paper forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-07 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Fade Home After Overtimewas o0090	116	17.4%	0.024	3.4%	2/3	789 · 0.87% · 0.008	673/150 · 1.6% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-20) courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_ot_open_v1/stamps.jsonl — NBA stampers start with the 2026-27 season, opening 2026-10-20 (docs/v51-table2-candidates.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 70-43-3 (+20.1u) · Blind 350-308-15 (+10.6u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: 673 blind bets (need 150, or 2 full blind seasons with >= 75; have 0 full), ROI=1.5691; blind CLV fail (book n=673, need 75, mean=0.0049, p=0.0802) blind look taken on the 2008-19 proxy window: 673 bets, ROI +1.57%; missed holdout (blind CLV +0.50%, p 0.080, guide v4.3.0); stays paper forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-04 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
NBA	Deep Rotation Big Spreadwas s2584	131	13.9%	0.045	0.7%	2/3	542 · 1.19% · 0.003	411/150 · 2.4% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	first run pending (2026-10-20) courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_minutes_spread_open_v1/stamps.jsonl — NBA stampers start with the 2026-27 season, opening 2026-10-20 (docs/v51-table2-candidates.md)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 77-51-3 (+18.3u) · Blind 213-184-14 (+9.8u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind misses: blind CLV over the blanket +0.84% (p 0.0256) not > 0 at p < 0.005 (guide v4.4.0) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. blind look taken on the 2008-19 proxy window: 411 bets, ROI +2.38%; missed nothing; stays paper forward: — stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-07 (first run pending 2026-10-20)
MLB	Stingy Pitching Team	200	10.0%	0.090	-2.5%	4/6	490 · 0.56% · 0.041	290/150 · 3.4% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	passed (one flag)	4 stamped rows, file 2026-10-07 05:16 UTC diamondpredictions/data/forward/mlb_v51_paper/stamps.jsonl
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 105-95-0 (+19.9u) · Blind 46-42-0 (+5.3u) (gate N 290, record 88) ✗ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ✗ Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Proof misses: n=200 (need 100), p=0.0897, CI lower=-2.4706; blind alone n=290, p=0.2854, CI lower=-6.4073 Blind misses: 290 blind bets (need 150, or 2 full blind seasons with >= 75; have 0 full), ROI=3.3815; blind CLV fail (book n=290, need 75, mean=0.0028, p=0.2158) forward: 0 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-03
Tennis	Rating Edge Early Linewas OPEN2_PRICE:P3+GAP:G3+LEAD:L2	220	14.5%	0.012	4.1%	2/3	220 · 1.56% · 0.019	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	303 stamped rows, file 2026-10-07 13:49 UTC tennis-algorithm/data/forward/tennis_open2/stamps.jsonl (both V51-OPEN-2 rules write one file; stamped counts the rows where this rule's decision is fire)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 132-88-0 (+31.9u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Proof, Seasons, CLV, Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: 3 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02
Tennis	Rating Edge Grand Slamwas OPEN2_PRICE:P3+GAP:G6+LEVEL:GS	114	15.5%	0.041	1.1%	2/3	114 · 1.94% · 0.042	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	origins yes · engines yes	303 stamped rows, file 2026-10-07 13:49 UTC tennis-algorithm/data/forward/tennis_open2/stamps.jsonl (both V51-OPEN-2 rules write one file; stamped counts the rows where this rule's decision is fire)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 69-45-0 (+17.7u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Proof, Seasons, CLV, Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: 0 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02

Sport notes

Where each sport's numbers come from, flags, unverified rules and the seat outlook.

Soccer T1 0/0 live · T2 4 · unverified 12 ⚠ 2 to check

Read from: SOCCER AI/registries/systems_registry.json @ origin/main c3e3d368 (2026-10-07) · SOCCER AI/registries/table1_live.json @ origin/main c3e3d368 (2026-10-07) · SOCCER AI/workers/picks-cron/src/v51Gates.js @ origin/main 123ec14f (2026-10-02) · SOCCER AI/data/more_leagues_forward/LEDGER.json @ origin/main 49bd1e40 (2026-10-03)

SEAT UNVERIFIED: Low Corner Model Draw This Table 1 seat has no clean row, so it is not counted and no ticket from it passes the hub. Blind not recorded by the sport (blanket same-side CLV not computed for the blind window: UNVERIFIED (guide v4.4.0))

SEAT UNVERIFIED: Shallow Box Priced Draw This Table 1 seat has no clean row, so it is not counted and no ticket from it passes the hub. Blind not recorded by the sport (blanket same-side CLV not computed for the blind window: UNVERIFIED (guide v4.4.0))

14 of 14 registered paper rules accounted for (4 listed, 10 unverified) (counted in SOCCER AI/registries/systems_registry.json).

Seat outlook docs/v51-table2-candidates.md @ 4fda6930

Closest to a seat: 6 seats live (4 posting); 4 one-miss rules with >= 150 winning blind bets (see soccer table)

Biggest obstacle: Owner rule: must win on Kalshi AND Polymarket

Top leads

Ten-league M005/M009/M010 forward

Unverified (12)

Guide v3.5.0, verified means recorded: these rules are listed so nobody counts them. Not in Table 1, Table 2 or the paper count; never posted.

System	Sealed N	ROI at open	p	CI lower	Seasons	CLV (n · mean · p)	Blind bets · ROI	Why unverified	Forward stamps (iMac)
Low Corner Model Draw	266	24.1%	0.004	8.3%	3/3	614 · 1.14% · <0.001	348/150 · 2.9% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 1: Blind not recorded by the sport (blanket same-side CLV not computed for the blind window: UNVERIFIED (guide v4.4.0))	—
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 103-163-0 (+64.2u) · Blind 113-235-0 (+10.2u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ? Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Not recorded by the sport: Blind. Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict.
Shallow Box Priced Draw	191	19.9%	0.029	1.9%	3/3	498 · 1.09% · <0.001	307/150 · 11.5% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 1: Blind not recorded by the sport (blanket same-side CLV not computed for the blind window: UNVERIFIED (guide v4.4.0))	—
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 74-117-0 (+38.0u) · Blind 111-196-0 (+35.2u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ? Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Not recorded by the sport: Blind. Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict.
Lucky Host Toothless Draw	220	16.4%	0.087	-4.4%	4/5	391 · 0.93% · <0.001	171/150 · 6.1% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 64-156-0 (+36.2u) · Blind 46-125-0 (+10.5u) ✗ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ? Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Proof misses: p 0.0870 > 0.05; CI lower -4.37% < 0 Not recorded by the sport: Blind. Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict.
English Slump Away Value	197	55.3%	<0.001	21.6%	4/4	368 · 1.40% · 0.026	171/150 · 24.7% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 65-132-0 (+109.0u) · Blind 34-137-0 (+42.2u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ? Blind ✗ ROI band ✓ Integrity ROI band misses: ROI 55.31% outside 5.0-35.0% Not recorded by the sport: Blind. Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict.
Shallower Box Blunt Draw	299	19.0%	0.016	4.0%	3/5	575 · 1.43% · <0.001	276/150 · 1.3% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 109-190-0 (+56.9u) · Blind 83-193-0 (+3.5u) ✓ Proof ✗ Seasons ✓ CLV ? Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Seasons misses: 3/5 profitable < 67% Not recorded by the sport: Blind. Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict.
Mild Luck Passive Draw	303	22.7%	0.013	3.7%	3/5	464 · 0.76% · 0.003	161/150 · 3.7% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 90-213-0 (+68.7u) · Blind 43-118-0 (+5.9u) ✓ Proof ✗ Seasons ✓ CLV ? Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Seasons misses: 3/5 profitable < 67% Not recorded by the sport: Blind. Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict.
Strong Luck Passive Draw	161	21.1%	0.071	-5.9%	4/5	240 · 0.73% · 0.025	79/150 · 20.5% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: no per-rule forward log: its blind bets cannot be counted to 150	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 46-115-0 (+34.0u) · Blind 25-54-0 (+16.2u) ✗ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Proof misses: p 0.0707 > 0.05; CI lower -5.87% < 0 Blind accruing: blind 79/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75), ROI +20.5%
H-LOOP-114	300	26.4%	0.011	5.3%	7/8	300 · -0.53% · 0.779	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: CLV miss with the wrong sign: mean CLV -0.53% is not > 0 (a fail, not a near-miss) no per-rule forward log: its blind bets cannot be counted to 150	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 86-214-0 (+79.1u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✗ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity CLV misses: mean -0.53% not > 0; p 0.779 not < 0.05 Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75)
H-LOOP-132	131	30.8%	0.002	11.5%	3/4	131 · 1.94% · 0.002	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: no per-rule forward log: its blind bets cannot be counted to 150	no forward ledger is defined for this sport
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 70-61-0 (+40.4u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75)
Home Edge Low Corner Draw (Ten Leagues)	402	16.3%	0.022	2.6%	3/3	1167 · 1.44% · <0.001	765/150 · 1.7% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))	19 stamped rows, file 2026-10-05 15:02 UTC SOCCER AI/data/more_leagues_forward/stamps.jsonl (all three ten-league rules write one file; stamped counts the rows where this rule fired)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 134-268-0 (+65.5u) · Blind 218-547-0 (+12.6u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ? Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Not recorded by the sport: Blind. Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: 0 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02
Elo Parity Low Corner Draw (Ten Leagues)	1425	7.2%	0.036	0.5%	3/3	3526 · 1.06% · <0.001	2101/150 · 1.4% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))	19 stamped rows, file 2026-10-05 15:02 UTC SOCCER AI/data/more_leagues_forward/stamps.jsonl (all three ten-league rules write one file; stamped counts the rows where this rule fired)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 469-956-0 (+102.8u) · Blind 643-1458-0 (+29.8u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ? Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Not recorded by the sport: Blind. Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: 3 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02
Away Drawer Rest Edge Draw (Ten Leagues)	267	17.2%	0.039	0.2%	3/3	605 · 0.64% · 0.003	338/150 · 0.2% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))	19 stamped rows, file 2026-10-05 15:02 UTC SOCCER AI/data/more_leagues_forward/stamps.jsonl (all three ten-league rules write one file; stamped counts the rows where this rule fired)
⚠ 5/6 checks Sealed 89-178-0 (+45.9u) · Blind 95-243-0 (+0.8u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV ? Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity Not recorded by the sport: Blind. Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind, ROI band. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: 1 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-02

MMA T1 2/2 live · T2 1 · unverified 2

Read from: mmalogic/docs/reports/system_performance_registry.json @ origin/main 25873db9 (2026-10-03) · mmalogic/docs/reports/v51_seats.json @ origin/main 52b6fccc (2026-10-06) · mmalogic/docs/reports/v51_prehistory_look_2026-10-02_frozen.json @ origin/main 461b1bbe (2026-10-02) · mmalogic/docs/reports/v51_look_home_abroad_2026-10-06_frozen.json @ origin/main 52b6fccc (2026-10-06) · mmalogic/docs/reports/v51_table2.json @ origin/main 31e1d98b (2026-10-07) · mmalogic/docs/reports/v51_prehistory_look_2026-10-03_regrade_v33.json @ origin/main c76a4ff5 (2026-10-03) · mmalogic/docs/reports/v51_look_young8_2026-10-06.json @ origin/main ee90ba54 (2026-10-06)

Statistical Main Card Experienced: last live-lane pass 2026-10-07T09:24 (event 2026-10-10): coverage (all priced), no_ticket (not_fight_day_window)

Statistical Main Card Experienced: blind 2015-19 is a backcast: constants tuned on 2020-26 (orchestrator ruling 2026-10-04: the owner-approved past-window method, one look at a held-out earlier window).

home_abroad: last live-lane pass 2026-10-07T09:24 (event 2026-10-10): coverage (all priced), rule_coverage (US card: no fire)

home_abroad: proof passes on its 699 blind bets alone (guide v4.2.0, owner 2026-10-06 "Unseen bets alone"): p 0.0059, CI lower 3.41%; sealed p 0.0527 misses. Blind 2012-20 is blind to this rule (frozen before its first print). Unknown nationality = no fire.

MMA has no paper betting lane (mmalogic CLAUDE.md); a seat is read from docs/reports/v51_seats.json, and Table 2 rows are tracking listings from docs/reports/v51_table2.json (no bets, no tickets).

3 of 3 registered paper rules accounted for (1 listed, 2 unverified) (counted in mmalogic docs/reports/system_performance_registry.json + docs/reports/v51_table2.json (tracking listings) + docs/reports/v51_seats.json).

Seat outlook docs/v51-table2-candidates.md @ 4fda6930

Closest to a seat: **Statistical Main Card Experienced is SEATED (v5.1, Kalshi tickets)**; integrity written down 2026-10-03 (prices 1017/1017, look-ahead 2034/2034, engine B agrees). **Live lane fixed 2026-10-04 (mma-lane-origins, mmalogic PR #61-63, hub #39/#41): 10-10 dry run 2 fires, both origins agree; /v51 live true; page note: blind 2015-19 is a backcast (constants tuned 2020-26). First live card Sat 2026-10-10 (Allen vs Duncan). Killed 2026-10-04 (mmalogic 758735ae): early drift (0/4 cells, -5.7% to -9.5% at the consensus open) and last-fight shape (0/10; best fade-off-KO-loss -1.27%). Fresh hunt 2026-10-04 (mmalogic c7ea83d1): nationality family rejected (fade_us dies blind); home_abroad (home fighter at a non-US card) listed Table 2 paper (proof p .0527 only; blind 0/150 forward from the 2026-10-04 freeze; leaked 2012-20 +9.61% n699 disclosed, never counted) — /v51 reads it clean 01:30Z after the iMac mmalogic checkout was fast-forwarded to c7ea83d1. Next untested: model-agnostic age gap (fightodds birthDate; blind 2012-14 only).** Next: 3 Table 2 tracking rows (below) each need a two-engine replay

Biggest obstacle: Only 1 of 42 graded systems passes; the other 38 miss proof and holdout at the real open. Two-engine replay (`scripts/v51_engine_b.py`) is written for the seated filter only

Top leads

Statistical Body Leg Experienced (misses only holdout: no 2015-19 blind bets possible), H_REACH_ACC_ADV_ML (misses proof at p .0517, n 97; blind 74 at +23.52%), Value Decision Favorite (misses proof at p .0601)

Unverified (2)

Guide v3.5.0, verified means recorded: these rules are listed so nobody counts them. Not in Table 1, Table 2 or the paper count; never posted.

System	Sealed N	ROI at open	p	CI lower	Seasons	CLV (n · mean · p)	Blind bets · ROI	Why unverified	Forward stamps (iMac)
H_REACH_ACC_ADV_ML	97	14.0%	0.052	0.5%	3/4	171 · 3.35% · <0.001	74/150 · 23.5% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: Integrity not proven: not proven: two engines no per-rule forward log: its blind bets cannot be counted to 150	—
⚠ 3/6 checks Sealed 68-29-0 (+13.6u) · Blind 50-24-0 (+17.4u) ✗ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✗ Integrity Proof misses: n=97 (need 100), p=0.0517, CI lower=0.4771 Blind accruing: blind 74/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75), ROI +23.5% Integrity misses: not proven: two engines
Value Decision Favorite	151	18.1%	0.060	-1.8%	3/3	151 · 1.29% · 0.032	0/150 · — full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: Integrity not proven: not proven: two engines no per-rule forward log: its blind bets cannot be counted to 150	—
⚠ 3/6 checks Sealed 62-89-0 (+27.4u) · Blind 0-0-0 (+0.0u) ✗ Proof ✓ Seasons ✓ CLV … Blind ✓ ROI band ✗ Integrity Proof misses: n=151 (need 100), p=0.0601, CI lower=-1.7785 Blind accruing: blind 0/150 · full blind seasons 0/2 (>= 75) Integrity misses: not proven: two engines

NFL T1 0/0 live · T2 6

Read from: Football/data/registry/nfl_systems_registry.json @ origin/main 20389a53 (2026-10-07) · Football/data/backtest_artifacts/v51/open_replay.json @ origin/main adb7c9e0 (2026-10-01) · Football/data/backtest_artifacts/v51/restate_2026-10-02_paper_rules.json @ origin/main b272ff4e (2026-10-02) · Football/docs/preregistration/nfl-v51-totals-v1.frozen.json @ origin/main 9c38183a (2026-10-02) · Football/docs/preregistration/nfl-v51-round4-families-v1.forward.json @ origin/main ffe45236 (2026-10-03) · Football/docs/preregistration/nfl-v51-round6-families-v1.forward.json @ origin/main 161c5de7 (2026-10-03) · Football/docs/preregistration/nfl-v51-totals-v1.forward.json @ origin/main 46f2ed06 (2026-10-03) · Football/data/backtest_artifacts/v51/gate_values_2026-10-03.json @ origin/main 0b1d1c0c (2026-10-03) · Football/docs/preregistration/nfl-v51-remine2-v1.blind.json @ origin/main b4483c3b (2026-10-05) · Football/docs/preregistration/nfl-v51-remine-v1.blind.json @ origin/main a6ecb0b6 (2026-10-03) · Football/docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-retest-v1.blind.json @ origin/main 3876beda (2026-10-06) · Football/docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-pressure-v1.forward.json @ origin/main 29b04edc (2026-10-07) · Football/docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-pressure-v1.blind.json @ origin/main 40479233 (2026-10-07)

Forward paper stamps (one file per rule under data/forward) are written by the iMac job (first spread-rule run Mon 2026-10-05) and are not all in git; blind counts are the registry's.

Away Rebuilder Passing Edge shows its restate (151 sealed bets; EXP-103, restate_2026-10-02_paper_rules.json); the original (125 bets) is in open_replay.json.

Home Rebuild is forward-only, not Table 2 (EXP-116, protocol v6): blind to this rule 2007-22 -10.36% on 1018 bets, 3/16 blind seasons profitable (Football docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-retest-v1.blind.json). Its practice stamps continue.

Home Late Covered Season is forward-only, not Table 2 (EXP-116, protocol v6): blind to this rule 2007-22 -3.27% on 556 bets, 8/16 blind seasons profitable (Football docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-retest-v1.blind.json). Its practice stamps continue.

Home Third is forward-only, not Table 2 (EXP-116, protocol v6): blind to this rule 2007-22 -4.44% on 1188 bets, 6/16 blind seasons profitable (Football docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-retest-v1.blind.json). Its practice stamps continue.

Away SRS is forward-only, not Table 2 (EXP-116, protocol v6): blind to this rule 2007-22 -7.75% on 1102 bets, 2/16 blind seasons profitable (Football docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-retest-v1.blind.json). Its practice stamps continue.

Late Season is forward-only, not Table 2 (EXP-116, protocol v6): blind to this rule 2007-22 -1.10% on 1120 bets, 9/16 blind seasons profitable (Football docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-retest-v1.blind.json). Its practice stamps continue.

Totals UNDER: no_extra_rest + home_last_under is forward-only, not Table 2 (orchestrator 2026-10-05): sealed 2014-25 7/12 seasons profitable; blind 2007-13 at the proxy open -5.60% on 532 bets (EXP-114, Football docs/preregistration/nfl-v51-remine2-v1.blind.json). Its practice stamps continue.

home_hc12 BET is forward-only, not Table 2 (EXP-116, protocol v6): blind to this rule 2007-22 -8.51% on 1562 bets, 1/16 blind seasons profitable (Football docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-retest-v1.blind.json). Its practice stamps continue.

away_dproe_lo BET is forward-only, not Table 2 (EXP-116, protocol v6): blind to this rule 2007-22 -9.92% on 921 bets, 2/16 blind seasons profitable (Football docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-retest-v1.blind.json). Its practice stamps continue.

home_proe_lo BET is forward-only, not Table 2 (EXP-116, protocol v6): blind to this rule 2007-22 -7.90% on 942 bets, 1/16 blind seasons profitable (Football docs/preregistration/nfl-v6-retest-v1.blind.json). Its practice stamps continue.

6 of 6 registered paper rules listed (counted in Football data/registry/nfl_systems_registry.json + docs/preregistration/nfl-v51-totals-v1.frozen.json + nfl-v51-round4-families-v1.forward.json + nfl-v51-round6-families-v1.forward.json + nfl-v51-remine2-v1.blind.json + nfl-v51-remine-v1.blind.json + nfl-v6-pressure-v1.forward.json + .blind.json).

Seat outlook docs/v51-table2-candidates.md @ 4fda6930

Closest to a seat: Method 2 on the vocabularies EXP-110 left out killed 2026-10-05 (EXP-114: 2 totals UNDER passed sealed, both lost blind 2007-13); 2007-13 is now spent for every frozen NFL vocabulary; FWD-005, home_hc12, away_dproe_lo, home_proe_lo are forward-only (lost their one blind look). New NFL families are forward-only. Implied-team-total censoring killed on sealed 2014-25 2026-10-05 (EXP-113, Football 8c317b3; 2007-13 still unread by it). Next: /fresh-sports-idea-hunt nfl with a 2007-13 lineage grep first; or method 2 (re-mine NFL vocabularies NOT in EXP-110 rounds 3-6, blind 2007-13). Totals UNDER (no extra rest + home last under): passes v5.1, owner chose practice 2026-10-03; forward stamps from week 5. Next: `away_dproe_lo` BET (p .018, one-miss on book CLV p .10 — the nearest NFL miss yet), then `home_hc12` BET and `home_proe_lo` BET (CLV only); each needs venue CLV on >= 100 forward bets

Biggest obstacle: No unread past window left (2014-22: spreads 5 looks, totals 1 + 9 reads); 150 blind bets per PROE rule = 2.1-2.3 seasons (2028); no free real opening juice before 2014

Top leads

6 forward paper rules (blind 0/150); totals rule forward; `home_hc12` BET, `away_dproe_lo` BET and `home_proe_lo` BET forward from week 5 (FWD-006, FWD-007); tempo / pace (EXP-107) and PROE (EXP-108) read on 2023-25, 0 passers; every further family is forward-only

College football T1 1/1 live · T2 3 · unverified 1

Read from: cfb-algorithm/data/registry.json @ origin/main 2e831d95 (2026-10-07)

Forward paper ledger (data/v51_paper_ledger.db, open stamps per rule) is gitignored and lives on the iMac; blind counts are the registry's.

4 of 4 registered paper rules accounted for (3 listed, 1 unverified) (counted in cfb-algorithm/data/registry.json).

Seat outlook docs/v51-table2-candidates.md @ 4fda6930

Closest to a seat: **4 Table 1 seats live: CFB-REMINE-03, -04, -05, -02 (live /v51 00:02Z 2026-10-07, every mark pass).** The three new seats came from the EXP-V51-50 protocol v6 re-test (26 window-parked rules; blind = 2007-13 + 2017-22 pooled; LEAD-09 refused at containment 1.00 vs REMINE-03). First fires: REMINE-04 week 7-8, -05 week 10, -02 / -03 week 11.

Biggest obstacle: Real opening prices only 2014-16 and 2023+; 2007-13 and 2017-22 graded at the assumed -110 cut 0.5%; free data only

Top leads

Table 2 paper: CFB-V51R3-01 (misses CLV, p .065). Forward-only: R4-01, R7-01 (pooled blind lost). Not yet re-tested under v6: CFB-PRIORGAP-01 on 2017-22, H-LOOP-017 (2 sealed seasons), totals UNDER + away 2+ time zones (2014-16 and 2007-13 never opened)

Unverified (1)

Guide v3.5.0, verified means recorded: these rules are listed so nobody counts them. Not in Table 1, Table 2 or the paper count; never posted.

System	Sealed N	ROI at open	p	CI lower	Seasons	CLV (n · mean · p)	Blind bets · ROI	Why unverified	Forward stamps (iMac)
CFB-V51R3-01	129	14.8%	0.038	1.3%	4/6	291 · 1.10% · 0.065	162/150 · 3.6% full seasons 0/2 (≥ 75)	Table 2: Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))	11 stamped rows, file 2026-10-06 23:34 UTC cfb-algorithm/data/v51_paper_ledger.db:open_stamps
⚠ 4/6 checks Sealed 77-51-1 (+19.1u) · Blind 86-72-4 (+5.8u) ✓ Proof ✓ Seasons ✗ CLV ? Blind ✓ ROI band ✓ Integrity CLV misses: p 0.065 not < 0.05 Not recorded by the sport: Blind. Derived from the values with the v5.2 gate thresholds (the artifact carries no verdict): Blind. Every other mark is the sport's own verdict. forward: 11 stamped / 150 · frozen 2026-10-03

NHL T1 1/1 live · T2 2 · unverified 1

Read from: icebreaker-ai/nhl_system_registry.json @ origin/main f12fb9bf (2026-10-04) · icebreaker-ai/research/v51/grade_forward_frozen.py @ origin/main 1b4df7b3 (2026-10-06) · icebreaker-ai/research/v51/results/lever1_v51_v2.json @ origin/main df0485ab (2026-10-03) · icebreaker-ai/docs/v51/integrity.json @ origin/main aa461acc (2026-10-04) · icebreaker-ai/NHL-experiment-log.md @ origin/main d0fc5133 (2026-10-07) · icebreaker-ai/research/v51/goalie_rules.py @ origin/main f6098309 (2026-10-03)

xG Underperformer Bounce is forward-only, not Table 2 (guide v3.5.0): misses proof, clv. It stays frozen and stamped (0 forward fires so far); it is listed as paper only if it passes the one-miss route with a positive CLV, on Kalshi or Polymarket venue CLV for >= 100 forward bets.

T_HC_NEW is forward-only, not Table 2 (guide v3.5.0): misses clv · CLV wrong-signed. It stays frozen and stamped (10 forward fires so far); it is listed as paper only if it passes the one-miss route with a positive CLV, on Kalshi or Polymarket venue CLV for >= 100 forward bets.

GK_STARTER_DOG is forward-only, not Table 2 (guide v3.5.0): frozen 2026-10-03T23:01:00Z (goalie_rules.py), no sealed set (forward bets do not supply criterion 1), no paper rows. Stamped so far: 0 forward fires. It is never counted as Table 1 or 2 until it clears the gate on its own forward bets.

GK_LATE_SWAP is forward-only, not Table 2 (guide v3.5.0): frozen 2026-10-03T23:01:00Z (goalie_rules.py), no sealed set (forward bets do not supply criterion 1), no paper rows. Stamped so far: 1 forward fires. It is never counted as Table 1 or 2 until it clears the gate on its own forward bets.

3 of 3 registered paper rules accounted for (2 listed, 1 unverified) (counted in icebreaker-ai nhl_system_registry.json + research/v51/grade_forward_frozen.py (RULES)).

Seat outlook docs/v51-table2-candidates.md @ 4fda6930

Closest to a seat: **1 Table 1 seat live: Fade Overtime Hangover.** Killed 2026-10-04 (icebreaker-ai 0ce40c9): last-game shape beyond OT, moneyline 0/84 and totals 0/36 (OT atoms excluded from 2008-19). SBR 2014-19 NHL opening totals are not real opens -> totals blind = 2008-10 only. Coach atoms on totals killed 2026-10-04 (0/20, icebreaker-ai 66cdfcd; coach feed left-censoring fixed). Schedule atoms on totals (stopped at lineage 2026-10-04) re-tested under protocol v6 2026-10-06 (icebreaker-ai 9f903eb pre-reg): 0/26 on sealed 2023-26, best p .121, nothing frozen, SBR 2008-11 totals still unread. v6 re-grade of the 69 lever-1 rules with their 2008-19 blind restored: 0 pass all five; RSF/RPF still one-miss (proof). Past-provable NHL levers in current data: none named — next NHL session starts with /fresh-sports-idea-hunt nhl for an atom no 2008-10 family read. RSF + RPF (one family, 225 / 107 sealed, +5.87% / +5.48%, miss only proof p .157 / .257)

Biggest obstacle: 2008-20 is spent for every current idea; no free second close; T_HC_NEW needs positive Kalshi or Polymarket venue CLV on >= 100 forward bets

Top leads

T_HC_NEW and XUB are **forward-only, not Table 2** (T_HC_NEW: CLV -0.47% is wrong-signed; XUB: misses proof and CLV once the spent 2008-20 bets are out); **RLMDOG-NHL** (RLM underdog at T-2h, venue fire-time price) is forward-only, not Table 2: Polymarket fails CLV + seasons + blind, Kalshi fails proof + CLV (98 of 103 carry a close) + seasons + blind; fire stamps live from 2026-10-03; earliest Table 1 ~Jan 2028 (150 blind bets at ~100 a season)

Unverified (1)

Guide v3.5.0, verified means recorded: these rules are listed so nobody counts them. Not in Table 1, Table 2 or the paper count; never posted.

System	Sealed N	ROI at open	p	CI lower	Seasons	CLV (n · mean · p)	Blind bets · ROI	Why unverified	Forward stamps (iMac)
OLME	UNREADABLE: named in grade_forward_frozen.py RULES but absent from lever1_v51_v2.json sealed_dual, or without a table2 / forward_only status in docs/v51/integrity.json

NBA T1 7/7 live · T2 10

Read from: courtside-ai/shared/nba-systems-contract.json @ origin/main 0f09890a (2026-09-30) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_v51_agree_open.json @ origin/main eb455459 (2026-10-01) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_v51_fresh_restated.json @ origin/main 7b724760 (2026-10-03) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_fresh_open_v1/rules.json @ origin/main f6de58fd (2026-10-02) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_totals_open_v1/rules.json @ origin/main 3581a59e (2026-10-03) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_totals_window_candidates.json @ origin/main 38c54b8c (2026-10-03) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_proxy_totals_blind.json @ origin/main 7db84765 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_totals_open_v1/seats.json @ origin/main 18ad258a (2026-10-07) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_minutes_spread_open_v1/rules.json @ origin/main 12dec268 (2026-10-04) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_minutes_spread_open_v1/seats.json @ origin/main 18ad258a (2026-10-07) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_minutes_spread_blind.json @ origin/main 7db84765 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_minutes_spread_candidates.json @ origin/main a4d69438 (2026-10-04) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_ot_open_v1/rules.json @ origin/main 5c2874cf (2026-10-04) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_ot_open_v1/seats.json @ origin/main 7db84765 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_ot_blind.json @ origin/main 7db84765 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_ot_candidates.json @ origin/main 75d411c4 (2026-10-04) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_minutes_spread_open_v1/rules_v6.json @ origin/main 67540289 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_minutes_spread_open_v1/seats.json @ origin/main 18ad258a (2026-10-07) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_v6_retest_blind.json @ origin/main 4f3385f3 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_v6_retest_candidates.json @ origin/main 8468d713 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_totals_open_v1/rules_v6.json @ origin/main 67540289 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_totals_open_v1/seats.json @ origin/main 18ad258a (2026-10-07) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_v6_retest_blind.json @ origin/main 4f3385f3 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_v6_retest_candidates.json @ origin/main 8468d713 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_blowout_open_v1/rules.json @ origin/main fb6f1fec (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_blowout_open_v1/seats.json @ origin/main 18ad258a (2026-10-07) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_v6_retest_blind.json @ origin/main 4f3385f3 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_v6_retest_candidates.json @ origin/main 8468d713 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_minutes_ml_open_v1/rules.json @ origin/main fb6f1fec (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/data/forward/nba_minutes_ml_open_v1/seats.json @ origin/main 39090aae (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_v6_retest_blind.json @ origin/main 4f3385f3 (2026-10-06) · courtside-ai/scripts/analysis/nba_v6_retest_candidates.json @ origin/main 8468d713 (2026-10-06)

Forward stamps (data/forward/nba_*) are written on the iMac and are not in git; blind counts are the registry's.

10 of 10 registered paper rules listed (counted in courtside-ai data/forward/nba_fresh_open_v1/rules.json + data/forward/nba_totals_open_v1/rules.json + data/forward/nba_minutes_spread_open_v1/rules.json + data/forward/nba_ot_open_v1/rules.json + scripts/analysis/nba_v51_agree_open.json).

Seat outlook docs/v51-table2-candidates.md @ 4fda6930

Closest to a seat: **4 Table 1 seats live (live /v51 read 2026-10-04 20:35Z, 0 unverified): t02109 UNDER (2012-18 proxy blind, 631 bets +3.52%), s2838, s5200, o0090 (back the away team when the home team's last game within 3 days went to overtime; 2008-19 proxy blind 673 bets +1.57% at the worse price; criterion 2 sealed 2 of 3, owner 2026-10-04 "Keep rule as written"; thin: sealed edge mostly 2024-25, increment over the 3-day parent p .137)**. 4 live seats lower NBA's priority (owner 2026-10-03). Blowout-rest killed 2026-10-05 (courtside 8022784; 252 rules, 0 families; blind 2008-19 / 2012-18 unread). Injury-report vs open: not provable today (ESPN opens carry no clock; no priced blind window with reports) — forward-blind only. Next: /fresh-sports-idea-hunt nba before the 10-20 opener.; 7 paper rules (5 fresh + AGREE/DEFENSE + t11073, a right-signed CLV one-miss: combined mean +0.83%, p .0545), blind 0/150 on the real-price forward arm (season opens 2026-10-20)

Biggest obstacle: No real past opening price for spread or total (2012-18 open total price is -110 on 97.8-99.9%); 2012-18 moneyline window spent; the totals search is noise-compatible against an efficient-close null (P .555); the cross-book open gap (ESPN open vs Action Network b30 open, totals + spreads, 48 rules, 2023-26) is killed 2026-10-03: 0 passers, engine B exact, the gap only predicts the close in ESPN BET's stale 2024-25 open (courtside-ai `docs/preregistration/nba-v51-open-gap.md`); next: venue-vs-book mid gap (forward only)

Top leads

Forward stamps + Kalshi/Polymarket close capture (totals contracts now read too, exact strike only); **RLMDOG-NBA** (RLM underdog at T-2h, venue fire-time price) is forward-only, not Table 2: Polymarket fails CLV + seasons + blind, Kalshi fails proof + seasons + blind; fire stamps live from 2026-10-03; earliest Table 1 = end of the 2026-27 season (150 blind bets ~mid-Feb 2027 and the 3rd season complete)

MLB T1 0/1 live · T2 1

Read from: diamondpredictions/audit_reports/seal_corrections.jsonl @ origin/main d49dff52 (2026-10-07) · diamondpredictions/audit_reports/v51_gate_report_restated_20261007.json @ origin/main d49dff52 (2026-10-07) · diamondpredictions/audit_reports/v51_backward_2016_daily_rows_restated_20261007.json @ origin/main d49dff52 (2026-10-07) · diamondpredictions/audit_reports/v51_gate_report.json @ origin/main e2639595 (2026-10-07)

Out after the restated_20261007 correction (v6-retest-restated_20261007): Cold Division Slump Opponent, Cold Division Win Streak, Fade Cold Revenge Mashers, Fade Windy Mashing Team, Windy Even Matchup Dog.

Back Home Win Streak sits in Table 1 on guide v3.11.0 (owner 2026-10-04). Its proof is the sealed 2018-25 record (137 bets, +15.3%, p 0.025) and book CLV +1.1% (p 0.00005, 302 bets). The blind record is 165 bets at +5.8%: 142 from MLB 2010-15, 23 from 2026. 2010-15 has one price archive (SBRO) and no second source, so the owner approved it with a penalty: a game whose opening price sits more than 15 points from its close is dropped, every payout is cut 0.5%, and live decisions always need two real prices. Read the blind step with care: a random rule passes it about half the time (95 of 200 trials at fair odds; a shuffle of results passes it 198 of 200), so the seat rests on the sealed proof and CLV, not on the blind ROI. Betting every home team at the 2010-15 open lost 3.5%, and random 144-bet home subsets matched this rule's 2010-15 result 10.5% of the time. 2016 (32 bets, +13.0%) is left out: the plan counted it, the seat does not, a cautious change made after the look (with it: 197 blind bets at +7.0%). Engines A and B agree on the sealed frame (137 bets) and on 2010-15 from 2010-05-01 (142 bets); the whole window did not (144 vs 147, three April-2010 bets where 2009 history is partial). Result note: diamondpredictions audit_reports/v51_single_archive_2010_15_result.md.

Paper rules are read from the latest correction's restated reports (restated_20261007); the un-restated originals stay on main unchanged.

1 of 1 registered paper rules listed (counted in diamondpredictions audit_reports/v51_gate_report_restated_20261007.json).

Seat outlook docs/v51-table2-candidates.md @ 4fda6930

Closest to a seat: **1 Table 1 seat: Back Home Win Streak (seated 2026-10-04, guide v3.11.0, method 1 SBRO 2010-15: blind 165 +5.83%, seasons 5/6 strict); live=False until the MLB ticket intent is built (first item of the next MLB Opus session; next slate 2027-03-25)**

Biggest obstacle: Frames repaired 2026-10-03 (384 Cleveland games had been missing from both engines 2018-20); 2018-20 seals pre-date the repair; no real opening price before 2018 except the one spent 2016 look

Top leads

5 other paper rules, all one-miss (4 on CLV, 1 on proof); Windy Even Matchup Dog blind +0.61% on 31

Tennis T1 0/0 live · T2 2

Read from: tennis-algorithm/data/registry.json @ origin/main 6ef09eca (2026-10-01) · tennis-algorithm/data/backtest_results/v51_grade_2026-10-01.json @ origin/main 6ef09eca (2026-10-01) · tennis-algorithm/data/open_close/freeze_v51_open2.json @ origin/main 9e0bae10 (2026-10-02) · tennis-algorithm/data/open_close/blind_start_v51_open2.json @ origin/main b6f7bd8d (2026-10-02)

The V51-OPEN-2 forward capture is data/forward/tennis_open2/stamps.jsonl on the iMac; the 2026 venue files are unread.

2 of 2 registered paper rules listed (counted in tennis-algorithm data/open_close/freeze_v51_open2.json).

Seat outlook docs/v51-table2-candidates.md @ 4fda6930

Closest to a seat: V51-OPEN-2 `OPEN2_PRICE:P3+GAP:G3+LEAD:L2`: 220 bets at +14.48% (p .0125, CI-lo +4.05, CLV +1.56% p .0192 n 220, seasons 2/3), frozen 9e0bae1; engines A and B agree (220 / +14.4773% both) and the 2021-23 opening price rests on the guide's pre-2024 single-archive exception (all 220 closes dual-verified, every open within 15pp of its close). Needs 150 blind bets, 0 so far (blind = matches after 2026-10-02T18:45:15Z)

Biggest obstacle: Blind pace: 220 sealed bets over 3 seasons is about 73 a year (derived), so 150 blind bets is about 2 seasons; seasons are exactly 2/3 (one more losing season fails it); the search result sits inside its null (48.5% of 200 null draws found 2 or more passers); 2024+ prices need a second open origin

Top leads

The second rule `OPEN2_PRICE:P3+GAP:G6+LEVEL:GS` (114 bets, +15.52%, p .0412) shares 86% of its picks with the first, so it is the same bet; Kalshi/Polymarket stamps and the blind grader are not written yet

Changed since 2026-10-06 51 changes

soccer SEAT UNVERIFIED Low Corner Model Draw — Blind not recorded by the sport (blanket same-side CLV not computed for the blind window: UNVERIFIED (guide v4.4.0))
soccer SEAT UNVERIFIED Shallow Box Priced Draw — Blind not recorded by the sport (blanket same-side CLV not computed for the blind window: UNVERIFIED (guide v4.4.0))
soccer paper rule now unverified Lucky Host Toothless Draw — Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))
soccer paper rule now unverified English Slump Away Value — Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))
soccer paper rule now unverified Shallower Box Blunt Draw — Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))
soccer paper rule now unverified Mild Luck Passive Draw — Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))
soccer paper rule now unverified Home Edge Low Corner Draw (Ten Leagues) — Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))
soccer paper rule now unverified Elo Parity Low Corner Draw (Ten Leagues) — Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))
soccer paper rule now unverified Away Drawer Rest Edge Draw (Ten Leagues) — Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))
soccer dropped to paper Close Ratings Host Draw — to paper
soccer dropped to paper Low Corner Pair Draw — to paper
soccer dropped to paper Rated Host Low Corners — to paper
MMA renamed to Host Country Fighter — was home_abroad
MMA renamed to Eight Years Younger — was young8
NFL renamed to Pass Funnel Defense Under — was home_dproe_hi UNDER
NFL renamed to Normal Rest Repeat Under — was Totals UNDER: no_extra_rest + home_last_under
NFL renamed to Fade Low Profile Home — was home_lowbrand FADE
NFL dropped to paper Pass Funnel Defense Under — to paper
NFL dropped to paper Normal Rest Repeat Under — to paper
NFL new paper rule Home Pass Rush Edge
NFL new paper rule Home Clean Pocket
CFB renamed to Clinched Road Team — was CFB-REMINE-03
CFB renamed to Unranked Contender Versus Eliminated — was CFB-REMINE-05
CFB renamed to Unranked Clinched Versus Eliminated — was CFB-REMINE-02
CFB renamed to Contender Versus New Coach — was CFB-REMINE-04
CFB paper rule now unverified CFB-V51R3-01 — Blind not recorded by the sport (blind CLV not recorded: re-grade with the gate's blind close test (guide v4.3.0))
CFB dropped to paper Clinched Road Team — to paper
CFB dropped to paper Unranked Contender Versus Eliminated — to paper
NHL renamed to Rested Short Favorite — was Rested Small Fav vs B2B
NHL renamed to Rested Process Favorite — was Rested Process Fav vs B2B
NBA renamed to Efficient Cold Offense Under — was t02109
NBA renamed to Blowout Winner Rested Starters — was b0100
NBA renamed to Deep Rotation Big Spread — was s2584
NBA renamed to Tight Rotation Small Spread — was s2838
NBA renamed to Stable Bench Star Minutes — was s5200
NBA renamed to Slow Leaky Defense Under — was t01299
NBA renamed to Hot Form Bricks Over — was t05025
NBA renamed to Low Total Hot Over — was t08719
NBA renamed to Consensus Or Defense Edge — was nba-v51-agree-defense-open
NBA renamed to Fade Third In Four — was r6330
NBA renamed to Fresh Favorite Tired Opponent — was r0227
NBA renamed to Lighter Schedule Tired Opponent — was r6240
NBA renamed to Rested Offensive Rebounders — was r4425
NBA renamed to Rested Light Week Favorite — was r6107
NBA renamed to Assist Heavy Projection Under — was t11073
NBA renamed to Stable Bench Rested Star — was m5139
NBA renamed to Fade Home After Overtime — was o0090
NBA dropped to paper Deep Rotation Big Spread — to paper
MLB paper moved Stingy Pitching Team — blind 88 -> 290 bets, ROI 5.99% -> 3.38%
tennis renamed to Rating Edge Early Line — was OPEN2_PRICE:P3+GAP:G3+LEAD:L2
tennis renamed to Rating Edge Grand Slam — was OPEN2_PRICE:P3+GAP:G6+LEVEL:GS